Friday, August 19, 2022

2022 Ebor Handicap Trends: Irish Have Won 46% Of The Last 13 Renewals

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Cheltenham Festival - Irish-trained Horses To Dominate Again

The 2022 Ebor Handicap trends will certainly help narrow down the 22 runners ahead of Europe’s most valuable flat handicap this Saturday. In recent years we’ve seen 13 of the last 20 Ebor winners aged 4 or 5, while 85% of the last 20 successful horses carried 9st 5lbs. However, we’ve also seen the Irish stables having a terrific record in the race – winning 6 of the last 13 – so, let’s see who they are sending over this year. Andy Newton takes a look.

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What Date Is The 2022 Ebor Handicap?

The Sky Bet Ebor Handicap is the richest flat handicap run in Europe and staged over 1m6f at the York Ebor Festival in August.

📅Date: Saturday 20th August 2022
🏇Racecourse: York
💰 Winner: £300,000 (Handicap)
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV

Irish Trainers Love To Target The Ebor Handicap

ireland horse

Since 2009, the Irish have landed this Saturday’s Sky Bet Ebor Handicap six times which works out at a 46% strike-rate – not too shabby right?

They did the business again 12 months ago when the Johnny Murtagh-trained Sonnyboyliston took the valuable top prize to back up the stable’s other win in 2014 (Mutual Regard).

We’ve even seen the Willie Mullins (2009, Sesenta) and Gordon Elliott (2010, Dirar) Irish yards get in on the act, while Tony Martin (2016, Heartbreak City) and Ger Lyons (2019, Mustajeer) are the other Emerald Isle yards to target the race with success.

With that in mind, it would be foolish to not take a look at the Irish 2022 Ebor Handicap entries for this year’s race.

Full List Of 2022 Irish Ebor Handicap Runners

EARL OF TYRONE @ SP with 888Sport

  • Trainer: P Twomey
  • Jockey: W J Lee
  • Age: 4
  • Weight: 9-5
  • Form: 3-3111

Winner of his last three races and heads here as a contender for being sent off as the Ebor Handicap favourite. The last win came in a Listed race at Limerick so the ease back into a handicap will help and regular rider Billy Lee makes the trip over. He’s also got winning form over 1m6f, so this step back up in trip will be no issue. Looks a big player, with the key age (4) and weight trends onside too.

OKITA SOUSHI @ SP with 888Sport

  • Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
  • Jockey: M P Sheehy (3)
  • Age: 4
  • Weight: 9-8
  • Form: 13-232

From the Joseph O’Brien yard, who are yet to win this race. However, you feel it won’t be long before they are snatching an Ebor. This 4 year-old is lightly-raced with only 5 runs and is yet to finish out of the first three. Been freshened up with 44 days off since his last run and the useful Irish claimer  M P Sheehy comes over to take off a handy 3lbs. Been supported in the lead-up to the race and is sure to have his supporters.

EVER PRESENT @ SP with 888Sport

Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Jockey: Shane Foley
Age: 6
Weight: 9-9
Form: 1121-4

Another yard (Jessie Harrington) still looking for their first in this race, but have a decent chance here. Returned last month with a fair fourth at Down Royal in a Listed race over this 1m6f trip, so should be a lot fitter for that here. Before that had won over 1m6f at Leopardstown back in Sept 21 and has won 4 of his 9 career starts. Is, however, another 7lbs higher in the ratings here from last time, so despite having a live e/w chance, will need to improve again.

LICENCE @ SP with 888Sport

Trainer: Ger Lyons
Jockey: Gary Carroll
Age: 4
Weight: 9-5
Form: 1-274

From the Ger Lyons yard that won this race in 2019. Returned earlier this month to be 4th at Leopardstown in a G3 race, so will find this ease in class to his liking. That was also his first run back from being gelded and his first for 3 months too, so will improve for it. Age and weight trends on his side and have had his supporters in the ante-post market in the lead-up to the race. Looks a lively each-way contender.

BENAUD @ SP with 888Sport

Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 27-791

Second runner from the Joseph O’Brien yard that will be carrying in the popular green/gold silks of owner JP McManus. Last seen winning easily at Bellewstown over 1m4f at the end of June, so you feel he’s worth another crack over this longer trip. Fair-looking chance and Jim Crowley, of Baaeed fame, has been booked to ride.

SHANROE @ SP with 888Sport

Trainer: Karl Thornton
Jockey: Robbie Colgan
Age: 8
Weight: 9-7
Form: /140-1

From the lesser Irish yard of Karl Thornton, but not without a squeak either. One of the more exprienced in the field though with 21 races, but has won 9 of those. Last seen winning at Galway at their Festival and only up 4lbs for that success. However, being an 8 year-old does have a hefty age trend to overcome – the last Ebor winner aged 8 or older was the mighty Sea Pigeon in 1979, who won the race as a 9 year-old.

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17 Of The Last 20 Ebor Winners Carried 9st 5lbs Or Less

This weight trend is another to look out for with an 85% return in the last 20 runnings. And of the 22 runners, it’s a stat that will see the top 12 on the card fall down. Therefore, if this trend is to be upheld then all of a sudden the 22 runners become 10!

Those have more than 9st 5lbs to carrry are Get Shirty, Enemy, Max Vega, Fancy Man, Ever Present, John Leeper, Okita Soushi, Global Storm, Rodrigo Diaz, Shanroe, Raymond Tusk and Candleford.

16 Of The Last 20 Ebor Winners Hailed From A Double-Figure Draw


This is another key trend to note is that 80% of the last 20 Ebor winners came from a double-figure draw. Despite the race being run over 1m6f, having a good position during the race can be key to saving ground and energy over this longer distance.

If this trend is to be repeated, then we can put a line through those draw 1-9, these include the likely favourite – Earl Of Tyrone, who is drawn 8. Other drawn low are Max Vega, Euchen Glen, Shanroe, Quenell D’Or, Not So Sleepy (res), Ever Present, Valley Forge and Alfred Boucher.

Just Two Winning Ebor Handicap Favourites Since 1999

The Ebor Handicap has also been a graveyard race for favourite backers in recent times – just two winning market leaders since 1999!

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The last of those jollies to win was Puple Moon in 2007, trained by Luca Cumani, with prior to that the Henry Cecil-trained Tuning (1998).

We’ve even at a 100/1 winner of the race in 2006 (Mudawin), plus four winners at 25/1 and 33/1 since 2008, so anything is possible in this 1m6f contest.

This year’s Ebor favourite (at this stage) is the Irish-trained Earl Of Tyrone, but that could easily change in the build-up to the race.

Only One Ebor Handicap Winner Aged 7 Or Older Since 1980


Another big trend is the age. The Ebor Handicap tends to go to horses aged between 4 and 6 years-old. This age range has been responsible for a massive 18 of the last 19 (95%) winners!

A stonking trend and that has also backed up with just two winners aged 7 or older since 1980 – the 7 year-old Litigant won in 2015 and then you can to go back to the mighty Sea Pigeon in 1979, who won aged 9, to find the oldest recent winners of the Ebor.

Yes, stats are there to be broken (or so they say!), but I’m still happy to put a line through the older brigade in the race – Euchen Glen (9), Shanroe (8), Raymond Tusk (7) and Not So Sleepy (Res) (10).

2022 Ebor Handicap Other Key Trends and Stats

  • 19/20 – Aged 6 or younger
  • 17/20 – Carried 9-5 or less
  • 17/20 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
  • 16/20 – Won from a double-figure stall
  • 13/20 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
  • 12/20 – Carried 9-1 or less
  • 12/20 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
  • 12/20 – Unplaced favourites
  • 11/20 – Had run at York before
  • 6/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
  • 6/20 – Won last time out
  • 6/20 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 13)
  • 4/20 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
  • 3/20 – Ran at Galway last time out
  • 2/20 – Trained by Johnny Murtagh (2 of last 8)
  • 2/20 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
  • 2/20 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
  • 2/20 – Winning favourites
  • Just two winning favourites since 1999
  • Since 1980 only one winner aged 7 or older
  • 6 of the last 8 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 19/1

DID YOU KNOW?: 17 of the last 20 Ebor Handicap winners carried 9st-5lbs or less. So, why not snap-up a FREE £60 bet with BetUK to use on the race and back a horse that fits this key weight trend.

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2022 Ebor Handicap Betting and Full Runners

See below the full 22 runners entered for the 2022 Ebor Handicap on Saturday 20th Aug, plus we take a look at the latest Ebor Handicap Betting market.

All odds correct as of 17:19 BST on Thurs 18 Aug and subject to change

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Recent Ebor Handicap Winners

  • 2021 – Sonnyboyliston (10/1)
  • 2020 – Fujaira Prince (11/2)
  • 2019 – Mustajeer (16/1)
  • 2018 – Muntahaa (11/1)
  • 2017 – Nakeeta (12/1)
  • 2016 – Heartbreak City (15/2)
  • 2015 – Litigant (33/1)
  • 2014 – Mutual Regard (20/1)
  • 2013 – Tiger Cliff (5/1)
  • 2012 – Willing Foe (12/1)

Watch The 2021 Sky Bet Ebor Handicap Again

York Race Times and Names | Saturday 20th August 2022

  • 1:50 – Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m1f ITV
  • 2:25 – Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo) 1m6f ITV
  • 3:00 – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV
  • 3:35 – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV
  • 4:10 – Sky Bet Constantine Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 6f ITV
  • 4:45 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) (IRE Incentive Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f RTV
  • 5:20 – Sky Bet Finale Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2½f RTV

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